Petroleum demand is set to grow at an average rate of 1.5 percent to 27.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 from 20.45 million bpd in 2004, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s long-term forecast.
The EIA’s long-term forecast projected energy supply, demand and prices for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. It did not include estimates for next year.
Imports from the Middle East, Venezuela and other foreign suppliers will grow to to 19.11 million bpd in 2025 from 11.78 million bpd in 2004, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department said.
Despite calls by many US politicians to cut US reliance on foreign oil, the US economy will import 68 percent of its petroleum needs in 2025, up from 58 percent now, the EIA said.
OPEC is expected to pump 55 million bpd of oil in 2025, 80 percent higher than the 31 mil?ion bpd it produced in 2003, the EIA said.
US crude oil production is expected to peak at 6 million bpd in 2010 and fall to 4.73 million bpd in 2025 as the nation’s mature production basins are tapped out, it said.
Non-OPEC nations will boost oil production to 65 million bpd in 2025 from 49 million bpd in 2003, the EIA said.
US natural gas demand will grow to 31.47 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2025 from 21.94 Tcf in 2004 — a 43 percent increase, the EIA said.
Natural gas imports from Canada will not be able to keep pace, so US markets will rely on supplies from a yet-to-be- built Alaska pipeline and imports of liquefied natural gas from other nations, the EIA said.
Alaska’s natural gas shipments will rise to 2.2 Tcf in 2025 from 400 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2003 with the projected completion of a pipeline in 2016, the EIA said.
Imports of LNG will rise to 6.4 Tcf in 2025 versus 400 Bcf in 2003, with new facilities to off-load tankers proposed in several Lower 48 states, the EIA said.
LNG is natural gas super-cooled to minus-259 degrees Fahrenheit, which shrinks and changes it to a liquid.
Coal will remain the nation’s primary source of electricity through 2025, accounting for about half of generation capacity, the EIA said. Natural-gas fired generation will grow to 24 percent of capacity in 2025 from 16 percent in 2003.
US nuclear generation will increase slightly, but no new plants are expected to be built because of unfavorable economics, the report said.